America This Week Wave 187

Prenups Go Mainstream, High (AI) Anxiety, Gen Z Moves Back Home, and The Better Wages Blues.

The latest trends in society and culture from The Harris Poll

In our America This Week survey fielded September 22nd to 24th among 2,123 Americans, a looming government shutdown translated into a 7%-pt increase in concern about a U.S. recession vs. last week (from 76% to 83%) and 8%-pt increase in affording living expenses (from 68% to 76%). As for employed Americans, over half are concerned about losing their jobs this week (a 9%-pt increase from 46% to 55%). So much for a soft landing?

This week, four new Harris Polls of note: First, in a recent Harris survey Axios, half of Americans are open to signing a prenup. Continuing this thread of social caution, in a new study with MITRE, A.I.’s risk/benefit equation is tracking more negatively than previous Harris polling. And then, with Bloomberg, we find more cash-strapped younger Americans are moving back in with their parents. Lastly, a new poll with USA TODAY finds that improving wages needs to translate into more confident consumers. At least not yet.

The new ATW monthly summary tabs and August ppt deck are here.

Sign Your Prenup To Say Your Vows: Axios-Harris Poll

According to new Harris data with Axios, half of U.S. adults are open to signing a prenup, indicating preconceived notions about romance and matrimony be damned.

• By the numbers: (50%) of U.S. adults said they at least somewhat supported using prenups. That’s up from last year when we found that (42%) of polled adults support using prenups. Today, about (20%) of married couples have a prenuptial agreement.
• Younger generations, in particular, are embracing prenups: Over two in five Gen Z and Millennials who are engaged or have been married said they entered a prenup before (41% and 47%, respectively).

Takeaway: The push for prenups could include several factors. Americans are getting hitched later in life, and they often have individual assets – and debt – to consider before marrying. Meanwhile, even if you factor in the recent wedding boom that pushed the marriage-to-divorce rate down, (40%) of marriages end in divorce nationally.

Americans Grow More Wary of AI: MITRE-Harris Poll

Most Americans don’t believe the current and potential benefits of Artificial Intelligence (AI) outweigh the risks, according to our research with MITRE in Axios. 

• Over half (54%) of Americans said they were more concerned about the risks of AI than they were excited about the potential benefits.
• At the same time, just (39%) believed today’s AI technologies are safe and secure – down 9%-points from the previous survey in November 2022.
• Respondents were more concerned about AI being used in malicious cyberattacks (80%) and identity theft schemes (78%) than they were about it being used to cause “harm to disadvantaged populations” (66%) or replace their jobs (52%):

Takeaway: “While the public has started to benefit from new A.I. capabilities such as ChatGPT, we’ve all watched as chatbots have spread political disinformation and shared dangerous medical advice,” said Douglas Robbins, vice president of engineering and prototyping at MITRE. A.I. operators and the tech industry are eyeing new regulations and policy changes to secure their models and mitigate the associated security and privacy risks. Our data highlights the growing support for these regulatory efforts. 

Back At Home With Mom & Dad: Bloomberg-Harris Poll

Moving out and living alone is often seen as a marker of adulthood. But pandemic lockdowns, decades-high inflation, soaring student debt, and a shaky job market have pushed many young people back under their parent’s roof, according to our new research with Bloomberg. 

• Over three-quarters (78%) of Americans say it’s more complex than ever for younger people to be able to live on their own – and almost nine in ten say people shouldn’t be judged for moving back home. 
• For those aged 18 to 29 living back at home, (41%) say it was to save money or that they couldn’t afford to live on their own anymore (30%).
• And of those currently living back at home, over a quarter (28%) report saving $1,000 or more a month, while (23%) save between $500 to $999.
• And (70%) even agree they wouldn’t be where they are today financially if they hadn’t lived at home.

Takeaway: For many, the American Dream is more like an American illusion, with nearly three-quarters of those surveyed saying younger people are stuck navigating a broken economic situation that prevents them from being financially successful. “We’re in an economy where it’s harder to live independently,” said Carol Sigelman, professor of social psychology at George Washington University. “Adults recognize that it’s tough these days.”

Wage Growth Outpaces Inflation, But Americans Aren’t Feeling It: USA TODAY-Harris Poll

After trailing inflation for over two years, average U.S. wage growth turned the tables in May, giving consumers more purchasing power and bolstering the economy. However, according to our latest poll with USA TODAY, most Americans aren’t feeling it. 

• Half (52%) of employed Americans reported a pay increase last year. 
• Of those who received a raise, (70%) said it eased their financial stress from inflation and allowed them to make additional purchases they couldn’t before (67%) while also more comfortably affording household bills (41%), living costs (38%), investing (31%). However, (18%) said the pay increase needed more to afford something comfortably. 
• And over three-quarters (78%) said they would need another raise to feel fully confident in their financial health.

Takeaway: After trailing inflation for over two years, average U.S. wage growth turned the tables in May, outpacing price increases, giving consumers more purchasing power and bolstering the economy. But while the development means Americans have a little more breathing room, most say they still need to catch up to the hefty price run-up and are spending warily (USA TODAY).