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After a period of tempered confidence, America’s middle market is showing renewed signs of life heading into the new year. The Q4 2025 RSM US Middle Market Business Index (MMBI), conducted by The Harris Poll in partnership with the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, surged to 131.5, a statistically significant jump from 123.3 in the prior quarter. This rising optimism is fueled by strong revenue growth and expectations of a more favorable policy environment, even as concerns about inflation and the broader economy linger.
Revenue and Reinvestment Fuel the Rebound
Despite the surge in confidence, middle market firms are still grappling with a challenging inflationary environment. The data indicates that pricing pressure remains a significant thorn in the side of business operations. Nearly three-quarters of executives (71%) reported paying higher prices for inputs, and a similar number (72%) expect those costs to continue climbing through the first half of next year.
In response, businesses are attempting to protect their margins by passing costs along to customers. A majority of firms (61%) raised their own prices this quarter, and 64% indicated they intend to do so again in the coming months, signaling that inflation will remain a key factor for the broader economy.
The Bigger Picture: A Disconnect in Economic Outlook
The fourth-quarter data paints a picture of a resilient middle market, where firm-level optimism is beginning to outweigh a sour sentiment about the overall economy. While a majority of leaders are forecasting growth for their own businesses, their view of the wider economy is split: only 38% felt conditions improved in the past quarter, while 36% stated they deteriorated. Looking ahead, nearly half (46%) expect the economy to improve, but a significant portion (32%) anticipate it will weaken.
The message for the year ahead is one of cautious optimism. Middle market leaders are clearly confident in their own ability to grow, but their success will depend on navigating the persistent external headwinds of inflation, pricing pressures, and an uncertain macroeconomic landscape.
About the research
The RSM US Middle Market Business Index is a measure of business sentiment among middle market firms, conducted quarterly by The Harris Poll on behalf of RSM in partnership with the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. The Q4 2025 findings are based on a survey of 405 senior executives conducted from October 1 to October 22, 2025.
Explore the full findings and learn more about the MMBI at RSM’s website.
