Rudy Giuliani Only One of 11 Possible Republican Candidates Who Could Beat President Obama

    NEW YORK, N.Y. – March 28, 2011 – The list of candidates continues to fluctuate and one year from now the Republican nominee will most likely be set. But, at this point, there is clearly no front-runner in the race for that nomination. Among all adults, assuming these candidates were in the Republican primary election, 10% would each vote for Mitt Romney and Donald Trump, while just under that would vote for Mike Huckabee (8%), Rudy Giuliani (8%) and Sarah Palin (7%). Five percent or less would vote for Newt Gingrich (5%), Tim Pawlenty (2%), Michele Bachmann (2%), Mitch Daniels (2%), Rick Santorum (1%) and Haley Barbour (less than 1%). Almost half of all Americans (45%) are not at all sure who they would vote for in the Republican primary.

    These are some of the results of The Harris Poll of 2,379 adults surveyed online between March 7 and 14, 2011 by Harris Interactive.

    Looking at just Republicans, the order is a little different and there is also a little less uncertainty. Mike Huckabee is on top of the Republicans’ list at 15% followed by Mitt Romney at 13% and Sarah Palin at 12%. Just under one in ten Republicans would vote for Newt Gingrich (9%), followed by Donald Trump (8%), and Rudy Giuliani (7%). Rounding out the list 3% of Republicans would each vote for Tim Pawlenty and Michele Bachmann, 2% for Rick Santorum and Mitch Daniels and less than 1% for Haley Barbour; one-quarter of Republicans (26%) are not at all sure who they would vote for in the Republican primary.

    Among Independents, the list changes again as Donald Trump moves to the top of who Independents would vote for in a Republican primary (13%) followed by Mitt Romney (11%), Rudy Giuliani (9%) and Mike Huckabee (8%). Two in five Independents (41%) are not at all sure.

    Republican candidates versus President Obama

    Taking the same list of 11 potential Republican nominees and pitting them against President Obama shows some interesting results. While he only garners 8% of overall adults and just 7% of Republicans in the primary field, Rudy Giuliani is the only candidate on the list who edges out President Obama in a head to head match-up, 51% to 49%. The next two Republicans make it a close race but President Obama edges out Mitt Romney (51% to 49%) and Mike Huckabee (52% to 48%).

    Among the next tier of candidates, it’s anywhere from a 10 point margin (Trump 45%/Obama 55%) to 12 point margin (Gingrich, Daniels and Pawlenty 44% versus Obama 56%) to a 14 point margin (Santorum 43%/Obama 57%). The third tier of candidates would be a relief for the current White House as President Obama is ahead by 16 points on Sarah Palin (58% vs. 42%) and 18 points ahead of Haley Barbour and Michele Bachmann (59% vs. 41%).

    So What?

    Ten months is a lifetime in politics and that’s how long it is until the first votes are cast in the Iowa caucuses. At this point, the list of potential Republicans will change as the time gets closer and the choruses of will he/she run will continue through the summer. But, one thing for all candidates to keep in mind is that when adults who would vote for at least one Republican were asked how concerned they are about the positions and policies of the potential Republican candidates, more than two-thirds (69%) said they are concerned and that number is the same among just Republicans. Among Independents who would vote for at least one Republican, three-quarters are concerned (76%). Republican candidates need to keep in mind that how they act during the primaries is being watched by these Independent voters – a bloc they need if they want to win in November 2012.

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    TABLE 1

    REPUBLICAN PRIMARY ELECTION

    If you were voting in the Republican primary election and these were the candidates, who would you vote for?

    Base: All adults

     

    Total

    Party ID

    Philosophy

    Mod. Ind.

    Tea Party Support

    Rep.

    Dem.

    Ind.

    Cons.

    Mod.

    Lib.

    %

    %

    %

    %

    %

    %

    %

    %

    %

    Mitt Romney

    10

    13

    9

    11

    10

    11

    8

    14

    13

    Donald Trump

    10

    8

    10

    13

    9

    11

    9

    14

    10

    Mike Huckabee

    8

    15

    5

    8

    15

    6

    4

    5

    15

    Rudy Giuliani

    8

    7

    9

    9

    7

    8

    12

    9

    7

    Sarah Palin

    7

    12

    4

    5

    12

    5

    4

    2

    12

    Newt Gingrich

    5

    9

    1

    5

    10

    3

    2

    3

    10

    Tim Pawlenty

    2

    3

    2

    2

    2

    3

    1

    4

    3

    Michele Bachmann

    2

    3

    2

    2

    3

    2

    2

    2

    3

    Mitch Daniels

    2

    2

    1

    3

    3

    1

    2

    2

    2

    Rick Santorum

    1

    2

     

     

     

    1

     

    1

    Haley Barbour

     

     

     

    1

    1

     

     

     

    1

    Not at all sure

    45

    26

    58

    41

    29

    51

    55

    44

    22

    Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding; indicates less than .05%

     


     

     

    TABLE 2A

    2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION – REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE OR PRESIDENT OBAMA

    Looking at the list below, assuming each person listed is the Republican nominee running against President Obama in the 2012 presidential election, who would you vote for?

    Base: All adults

     

    Would vote for

    President Obama

    The Republican nominee

    %

    %

    Michele Bachmann

    59

    41

    Haley Barbour

    59

    41

    Sarah Palin

    58

    42

    Rick Santorum

    57

    43

    Tim Pawlenty

    56

    44

    Mitch Daniels

    56

    44

    Newt Gingrich

    56

    44

    Donald Trump

    55

    45

    Mike Huckabee

    52

    48

    Mitt Romney

    51

    49

    Rudy Giuliani

    49

    51

    Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

     

    TABLE 2B

    2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION – REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE OR PRESIDENT OBAMA

    Looking at the list below, assuming each person listed is the Republican nominee running against President Obama in the 2012 presidential election, who would you vote for?

    Summary of those who would vote for the Republican nominee

    Base: All adults

     

    Total

    Party ID

    Philosophy

    Mod. Ind.

    Tea Party Support

    Rep.

    Dem.

    Ind.

    Cons.

    Mod.

    Lib.

    %

    %

    %

    %

    %

    %

    %

    %

    %

    Rudy Giuliani

    51

    87

    15

    55

    81

    44

    15

    45

    87

    Mitt Romney

    49

    85

    14

    52

    81

    42

    10

    47

    87

    Mike Huckabee

    48

    83

    13

    52

    80

    41

    10

    45

    87

    Donald Trump

    45

    73

    14

    48

    74

    38

    12

    41

    78

    Newt Gingrich

    44

    81

    9

    46

    79

    35

    8

    36

    85

    Mitch Daniels

    44

    80

    10

    46

    77

    36

    7

    37

    82

    Tim Pawlenty

    44

    79

    9

    47

    78

    35

    7

    39

    82

    Rick Santorum

    43

    79

    9

    46

    76

    35

    7

    37

    81

    Sarah Palin

    42

    75

    10

    43

    74

    34

    8

    34

    80

    Haley Barbour

    41

    74

    10

    44

    74

    33

    7

    33

    79

    Michele Bachmann

    41

    72

    10

    44

    73

    33

    10

    34

    77

    Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding;


     

     

    TABLE 3

    CONCERN ABOUT THE POLICIES AND POSITIONS OF REPUBLICAN NOMINEES

    How concerned are you about the positions and policies of the various potential Republican nominees?

    Base: Adults who would vote for at least one Republican

     

    Total

    Party ID

    Philosophy

    Mod. Ind.

    Tea Party Support

    Rep.

    Dem.

    Ind.

    Cons.

    Mod.

    Lib.

    %

    %

    %

    %

    %

    %

    %

    %

    %

    Concerned (NET)

    69

    69

    66

    76

    67

    70

    79

    77

    73

    Very concerned

    30

    32

    33

    32

    31

    28

    43

    31

    32

    Somewhat concerned

    39

    38

    33

    44

    36

    42

    35

    46

    41

    Not concerned (NET)

    21

    25

    16

    17

    26

    16

    12

    15

    23

    Not very concerned

    15

    19

    11

    12

    18

    12

    10

    12

    17

    Not at all concerned

    6

    6

    5

    5

    8

    4

    2

    3

    7

    Not at all sure

    10

    5

    18

    7

    6

    14

    9

    8

    3

    Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding;

     

    Methodology

    This Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between March 7 to 14, 2011 among 2,379 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.

    All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words margin of error as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.

    Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.

    These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

     

    The results of this Harris Poll may not be used in advertising, marketing or promotion without the prior written permission of Harris Interactive.

    J39773

    Q1225, 1227, 1230

     

     

    The Harris Poll ® #41, March 28, 2011

    By Regina A. Corso, SVP, Harris Poll, Public Relations and Youth Research, Harris Interactive

    About Harris Interactive

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