New York, N.Y. – April 20, 2011 – A new BBC World News America/Harris Poll examines American attitudes to U.S. military intervention in other countries, from Afghanistan and Bosnia to Libya and Darfur, and finds that there are widespread disagreements about almost all of the six countries where the U.S. intervened and three countries where it did not. However there was widespread agreement that the U.S. should not be the world’s policeman (67% to 11%) and that each case where intervention is possible should be considered separately rather than using a predetermined set of policies (63% vs. 25%). The poll also found that there are 6 circumstances where a majority of the public believes that in general it is right for the U.S. to intervene militarily.
These are some of the findings of a new BBC World News America/Harris Poll of 2,483 U.S. adults surveyed online between April 8 and 12, 2011 by Harris Interactive.
The main findings of the poll include:
- Only 31% of all adults feel that President Obama has explained clearly when the U.S. should and should not use military force. Many are not sure (25%), while 44% believe he has not been clear;
- Large numbers of people (22% or more) are not sure whether or not it was right to intervene in six countries where U.S. troops or airplanes have been used, and in some cases almost half the country is unsure (47% are unsure about Bosnia and 47% are unsure about Somalia);
- A sizable 47% to 27% plurality believes that intervening in Afghanistan was the right thing to do but opinion is more or less evenly divided on U.S. intervention in Iraq, Libya, Somalia and Kosovo;
- Even larger numbers have no opinions on three cases where the U.S. did not use military force -the Ivory Coast (53% not sure), Darfur (45% not sure) and Rwanda (also 45% not sure). Of those with opinions, a 32% to 15% plurality believes the U.S. was right to not intervene in the Ivory Coast, while opinions are equally split on Darfur and Rwanda;
- There is widespread support for military intervention under the following circumstances: to prevent terrorist attacks on the U.S. (79%), to prevent nuclear weapons from falling into the hands of terrorists (78%), if a strong and friendly ally is attacked (74%), to prevent a country that is hostile to the United States from building nuclear weapons (71%), if a dictator is killing large numbers of their own people (66%) and to overthrow a dictator who is very hostile to the U.S. (55%);
- Only 33% favor the use of U.S. force to change a dictatorship into a democracy;
- The replies concerning Libya are somewhat contradictory-while only 32% of the public think it was right to intervene there, 40% think the president should have intervened earlier (20%) or that he intervened at the right time (20%), with 25% saying he should not have intervened at all; and
- With one exception, the majorities in favor of using U.S. military force are conditional on the U.S. having strong support from other countries. The exception: a 61% majority believes that the U.S. should use force to prevent terror attacks on the U.S. even if it is not strongly supported by allies. Far fewer think the U.S. should use force unilaterally to prevent nuclear weapons from falling into the hands of terrorists (46%), to prevent a hostile country from building nuclear weapons (31%), or if a dictator is killing large numbers of his own people (22%).
So What?
While the public is split on many of the issues addressed in this poll, the big picture is rather clear. In the abstract, most Americans favor the use of force to intervene in other countries under some circumstances but not others. With rare exception however, most people do not favor the unilateral use of force; having strong allies is very important to many people and the approach is pragmatic; they believe each and every case should be considered on its merits rather than by a set of rules or principles. In most of the specific cases where the U.S. has or has not intervened over the last 20 years the public is split, with the strongest plurality in favor of intervention regarding Afghanistan and the strongest opposition regarding Iraq.
TABLE 1
HOW CLEARLY HAS PRESIDENT OBAMA EXPLAINED HIS POLICIES ON WHEN TO INTERVENE MILITARILY
Some people have used the words ‘The Obama Doctrine’ to describe President Obama’s explanation of when the United States should, or should not, intervene militarily in other countries. How clearly do you think he has explained this policy?
Base: All U.S. adults
|
Total |
Gender |
Education |
||||
|
Male |
Female |
H.S. or less |
Some college |
College grad + |
||
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Clearly (NET) |
31 |
35 |
27 |
28 |
28 |
39 |
|
Very clearly |
11 |
13 |
8 |
8 |
11 |
14 |
|
Somewhat clearly |
21 |
23 |
19 |
20 |
17 |
25 |
|
Not clearly (NET) |
44 |
49 |
38 |
41 |
49 |
44 |
|
Not very clearly |
21 |
21 |
21 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
|
Not at all clearly |
23 |
28 |
17 |
20 |
27 |
21 |
|
Not sure |
25 |
15 |
34 |
31 |
23 |
17 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 2A
ASSESSMENT OF WHERE THE U.S. HAS INTERVENED
Below is a list of places where the United States has intervened in the last two decades, using military force. Do you think it was right or wrong that we did so in each of these places?
Base: All U.S. adults
|
Right |
Wrong |
Not sure |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Afghanistan |
47 |
27 |
26 |
|
Iraq |
36 |
42 |
22 |
|
Bosnia |
32 |
21 |
47 |
|
Libya |
32 |
32 |
35 |
|
Somalia |
29 |
24 |
47 |
|
Kosovo |
28 |
21 |
50 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 2B
ASSESSMENT OF WHERE THE U.S. HAS INTERVENED
Below is a list of places where the United States has intervened in the last two decades, using military force. Do you think it was right or wrong that we did so in each of these places?
Summary of those saying right
Base: All U.S. adults
|
Total |
Age |
Gender |
|||||
|
18-34 |
35-44 |
45-54 |
55+ |
Male |
Female |
||
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Afghanistan |
47 |
42 |
45 |
53 |
50 |
54 |
41 |
|
Iraq |
36 |
31 |
33 |
42 |
38 |
40 |
32 |
|
Bosnia |
32 |
27 |
31 |
38 |
35 |
43 |
23 |
|
Libya |
32 |
29 |
32 |
33 |
35 |
39 |
26 |
|
Somalia |
29 |
28 |
26 |
33 |
30 |
36 |
22 |
|
Kosovo |
28 |
26 |
26 |
31 |
30 |
39 |
19 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 3A
ASSESSMENT OF WHERE THE U.S. HAS NOT INTERVENED
Below is a list of places where the United States has not intervened militarily. Do you think it was right or wrong that we did not do so in each of these places?
Base: All U.S. adults
|
Right |
Wrong |
Not sure |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Ivory Coast |
32 |
15 |
53 |
|
Darfur |
28 |
27 |
45 |
|
Rwanda |
28 |
27 |
45 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 3B
ASSESSMENT OF WHERE THE U.S. HAS NOT INTERVENED
Below is a list of places where the United States has not intervened militarily. Do you think it was right or wrong that we did not do so in each of these places?
Summary of those saying right
Base: All U.S. adults
|
Total |
Age |
Gender |
|||||
|
18-34 |
35-44 |
45-54 |
55+ |
Male |
Female |
||
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Ivory Coast |
32 |
25 |
30 |
32 |
39 |
40 |
25 |
|
Darfur |
28 |
22 |
27 |
26 |
35 |
34 |
22 |
|
Rwanda |
28 |
20 |
28 |
28 |
34 |
34 |
22 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 4A
WHEN SHOULD THE U.S. USE MILITARY FORCE
President Obama has said that if necessary, he would use military force to protect the vital interests and security of the United States, but that on some occasions he would only do so if the United States was strongly supported by other countries. For each of the following please indicate what you think the United States should do.
Base: All U.S. adults
|
Intervene even without strong allies |
Intervene only with strong allies |
Not intervene |
Not sure |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
To prevent terrorist attacks against the United States |
61 |
18 |
5 |
16 |
|
To prevent nuclear weapons from falling into the hands of terrorists |
46 |
32 |
4 |
18 |
|
If a strong and friendly ally is attacked |
39 |
35 |
5 |
21 |
|
To prevent a country that is hostile to the United States from building nuclear weapons |
31 |
40 |
8 |
21 |
|
If a dictator is killing large numbers of their own people |
22 |
45 |
14 |
20 |
|
To overthrow a dictator who is very hostile to the United States |
21 |
33 |
23 |
23 |
|
To change a dictatorship into a democracy |
5 |
28 |
42 |
25 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 4B
WHEN SHOULD THE U.S. USE MILITARY FORCE
President Obama has said that if necessary, he would use military force to protect the vital interests and security of the United States, but that on some occasions he would only do so if the United States was strongly supported by other countries. For each of the following please indicate what you think the United States should do.
Summary of those saying intervene (intervene without strong allies and intervene only with strong allies)
Base: All U.S. adults
|
Total |
Age |
Gender |
|||||
|
18-34 |
35-44 |
45-54 |
55+ |
Male |
Female |
||
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
To prevent terrorist attacks against the United States |
79 |
69 |
69 |
84 |
90 |
85 |
74 |
|
To prevent nuclear weapons from falling into the hands of terrorists |
78 |
70 |
69 |
81 |
90 |
84 |
73 |
|
If a strong and friendly ally is attacked |
74 |
67 |
66 |
75 |
84 |
82 |
67 |
|
To prevent a country that is hostile to the United States from building nuclear weapons |
71 |
61 |
61 |
74 |
84 |
77 |
65 |
|
If a dictator is killing large numbers of their own people |
66 |
63 |
56 |
68 |
76 |
71 |
62 |
|
To overthrow a dictator who is very hostile to the United States |
55 |
51 |
46 |
58 |
61 |
58 |
51 |
|
To change a dictatorship into a democracy |
33 |
27 |
31 |
33 |
40 |
37 |
28 |
Note: Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 5
SHOULD THE U.S. HAVE CLEAR POLICIES OR DEAL WITH SITUATIONS INDIVIDUALLY
Do you think the United States should…?
Base: All U.S. adults
|
Total |
Education |
Age |
||||||
|
H.S. or less |
Some college |
College grad + |
18-34 |
35-44 |
45-54 |
55+ |
||
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Consider each case for using military force individually |
63 |
56 |
66 |
69 |
61 |
58 |
63 |
67 |
|
Have a clear set of policies to determine when the U.S. should use military force |
25 |
28 |
25 |
22 |
23 |
27 |
25 |
27 |
|
Not sure |
12 |
16 |
9 |
9 |
16 |
16 |
12 |
6 |
Note: Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 6
SHOULD THE U.S. ACT AS THE WORLD’S POLICEMAN
Would you like to see the United States act as ‘the world’s policeman’, protecting democratic states and punishing those that are brutal or repressive?
Base: All U.S. adults
|
Total |
Education |
Age |
Gender |
|||||||
|
H.S. or less |
Some college |
College grad + |
18-34 |
35-44 |
45-54 |
55+ |
Male |
Female |
||
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Yes |
11 |
10 |
13 |
10 |
12 |
13 |
10 |
8 |
13 |
8 |
|
No |
67 |
63 |
68 |
71 |
63 |
63 |
61 |
76 |
70 |
64 |
|
Not sure |
23 |
27 |
19 |
19 |
25 |
24 |
29 |
16 |
17 |
28 |
Note: Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding
TABLE 7
OPINIONS ON PRESIDENT OBAMA’S ACTIONS IN LIBYA
What would you say about President Obama’s decision to use the U.S. Air Force and missiles in Libya?
Base: All U.S. adults
|
Total |
Age |
Gender |
|||||
|
18-34 |
35-44 |
45-54 |
55+ |
Male |
Female |
||
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
He should have intervened earlier |
20 |
14 |
17 |
21 |
26 |
26 |
14 |
|
He intervened at the right time |
20 |
17 |
21 |
18 |
25 |
23 |
18 |
|
He should have intervened later |
2 |
4 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
2 |
|
He should not have intervened at all |
25 |
25 |
22 |
28 |
26 |
28 |
23 |
|
Not sure |
32 |
41 |
36 |
31 |
22 |
20 |
43 |
Note: Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding
Methodology
This BBC World News America/Harris Poll was conducted online within the United States between April 8 and 12, 2011 among 2,483 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Where appropriate, this data were also weighted to reflect the composition of the adult online population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents’ propensity to be online.
All sample surveys and polls, whether or not they use probability sampling, are subject to multiple sources of error which are most often not possible to quantify or estimate, including sampling error, coverage error, error associated with nonresponse, error associated with question wording and response options, and post-survey weighting and adjustments. Therefore, Harris Interactive avoids the words margin of error as they are misleading. All that can be calculated are different possible sampling errors with different probabilities for pure, unweighted, random samples with 100% response rates. These are only theoretical because no published polls come close to this ideal.
Respondents for this survey were selected from among those who have agreed to participate in Harris Interactive surveys. The data have been weighted to reflect the composition of the adult population. Because the sample is based on those who agreed to participate in the Harris Interactive panel, no estimates of theoretical sampling error can be calculated.
These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
The results of this Harris Poll may not be used in advertising, marketing or promotion without the prior written permission of Harris Interactive.
The Harris Poll® #50, April 20, 2011
By Humphrey Taylor, Chairman The Harris Poll
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